St Louis Mortgage and Real Estate News –
St Louis Home Loan and Customer Financing News: A Silver Lining To The Housing Storm – By Brett Arends
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Prices in many areas are now cheap. They have corrected a long way since the bubble began to burst five years ago. Of course, it depends on where you are.
I’m still skeptical of the real-estate markets that have held up best — prime stuff like Manhattan, San Francisco or Beverly Hills. It’s hard to get a deal there. But in the places that have fallen the furthest, there are deals aplenty.
Zillow found only four metro areas in America that have leveled out, or risen, lately. Notably, two of those are in stricken Florida — Fort Myers and Sarasota. Have they fallen so far they’ve hit bottom.
The second reason: There are tons of foreclosures and short sales on the market. And there are plenty more sitting in the wings.
Banks are holding back big shadow inventories of homes. And that means you can get a great deal. They have to sell. You don’t have to buy. You hold all the cards. Remember, the name of the game isn’t ‘let’s make a deal.’ It’s ‘take it or leave it.’
Third, in many places rental yields are terrific. It’s cheaper to own than to rent.
There have been some forced sales in my building in Miami. Based on my math, the latest buyers have bought condominium units for six times gross annual rents, and maybe 12 times net rents. We’re talking net yields of 7 percent or more. And rents are rising, because so many former owners are now renters.
The fourth reason I’m bullish is that you can get a very cheap mortgage.
Thirty-year conforming loans are going as low as 4.3 percent. Throw in the tax break on the interest, and you are talking cheap finance.
The fifth reason is that, as painful as this collapse has been, real estate has historically proven to offer very good long-term protection against inflation.
Returns have typically averaged about 1 percent or 2 percent above inflation.
At a time when everyone has been piling into gold, commodities and TIPS bonds to protect themselves against the possibility of inflation, it seems odd that the most popular and successful hedge, namely real estate, goes a-begging.
Thirty-year TIPS bonds are yielding just 1.6 percent over inflation, and shorter-term bonds offer even lower returns. Short-term TIPS are actually offering negative real yields.
The sixth reason I’m bullish is perverse, but I’m sticking by it. Everyone else is bearish. You cannot find a real-estate bull anywhere. No one wants to own this asset. No one wants to talk about it. No one wants to hear about it. Everyone seems to agree it’s just going down, down, down — forever.
They said much the same about stocks in 1987, 2002 and 2009; Treasury bonds in 1982; and gold in 2000. I cannot prove this is capitulation, but it sure smells something like it. As ever, if you aren’t disciplined and patient, this probably isn’t for you.
I have absolutely no idea when real estate is going to hit rock bottom. It may take several years. I suspect it will do so in different markets at different times.
But there are good homes out there going really cheap. If you hunt down the bargains, you’re disciplined about price, you get the right financing, and you hold on for five years or more, you’ll probably do pretty well from here.
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